2021.12.03 16:59 Habita2000 Zekrom
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2021.12.03 16:59 bikesnbeer76 ....and we are back to coronation street in half an hour......😒
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2021.12.03 16:59 NewsElfForEnterprise Taylor Swift tops Cleveland’s most popular tunes, based on Spotify data
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2021.12.03 16:59 Embarrassed_Cat_1396 Fundamental Value Upside to $PTHRF/$EEENF 2022 Drilling Season's Appraisal Programs
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88 Energy and Pantheon Resources Risked Valuation/Drilling Upside
Despite recent share price strength, from a fundamental standpoint Pantheon continues to offer significant value, on a risk/reward basis, for the upcoming appraisal activities. Pantheon’s market cap is higher than 88E’s but this is more than justified on the fundamentals. On a risk/reward basis, Pantheon’s best play, Theta West Lower, offers a 60-70% chance of a 5 fold increase in market cap. On a risked basis this winter’s activities can support, on the fundamentals, a pre-drill share price 5 times higher than currently and could potentially drive the share price 10 times higher post-drill. Meanwhile 88E’s Project Peregrine offers a 34% chance (56% x 60%) of success in one of the three zones (N18,N19 & N20), with success in only one zone offering a limited increase in market cap. This suggests a significant proportion of upside is already priced in to the 88E share price, or the other assets are contributing significantly to its current market cap. Interestingly my analysis shows that on a risked basis the Icewine Central Leases ($294M) are contributing more on a fundamental basis to the market cap than that of Merlin ($125M), although Merlin offers more upside due to the higher risks associated. On a risked basis, 88E’s winter activities can support a share price 1.6 times higher, which may suggest it’s fairly valued currently. All these figures are based on the Best estimates and CoS data/comments released by both companies. Given the conservative nature of Pantheon’s maiden resource numbers for Theta West (only 12% recovery factor used) the upside may be even larger than these numbers suggest, however further dilution will be required to fund these activities (farm out/cash raise).
With a larger audience now more familiar with the exploration companies 88E (88E/$EEENF) and Pantheon Resources (PAN$PTHRF) I thought it would be worthwhile to look at the upside to this season’s exploration/appraisal activities based on resource size, NAV/boe (Net Asset Value/Barrel of Oil Equivalent) and CoS (Chance of Success). Please note I have tried to reference all numbers in the calculations and those highlighted in red are my own for which I have provided further commentary. To clarify, this is not a prediction of share price movements, more an estimate of what the companies could be worth when viewed on a fundamental basis. It should be noted oil exploration companies often trade below values indicated by fundamental analysis. Likewise I am aware both companies may need to undertake further dilution via placings or farmout to further appraise the assets ahead of sale. General rules to my analysis are as per below:
In my opinion, 88E and Pantheon take different approaches with regard to their resource numbers and guidance released. 88E appear to be more promotional with their resource numbers and generally reference Mean estimate numbers in their commentary. Pantheon only reference Best estimate numbers and guide to regionally conservative recovery rates. Whilst I have tried to normalise the numbers by using Best estimates, I still believe PANR’s numbers, despite not all being third party verified, are more conservative than 88E’s given the lower recovery rates used at Alkaid and Theta West. In both companies’ cases gas resources have been ignored given the difficulties to commercialise gas on the North Slope. I have also not included the unconventional potential of PANR’s and 88E’s acreage which both companies targeted initially.
- Where available Net Best estimates released by the companies have been used.
- 88E’s NAV/boe are based on Cenkos’ valuations from Nov‘20 but I have assumed only 50% of this value will be realised given 88E has undertaken limited appraisal to date (please refer to Dave Wall’s comments referenced below regarding NAV links to appraisal progress). Pantheon’s are based on comments by Jay Cheatham in the August ‘21 webinar where he assessed data supporting 90% of the Armstrong/Oil Search Pikka valuation of $3.10 per barrel could be achieved from the results of this winter’s operations.
- For the 88E CoS I have utilised ERCE’s individual geological CoS for each horizon and then applied their chance of development number (60%). Meanwhile for Pantheon I have based these on the comments made by Bob Rosenthal in August’s webinar where he stated a 60-70% CoS for commercial development. Pantheon’s management assess they have already met the threshold required to label their geological CoS as 100%.
- Shares in Issue
- 88e – 14,400,403,996
- Pantheon – 696,208,674
- £ to $ Exchange Rate – 1.33
A brief summary of the thought process behind each of the plays is detailed below:
88 Energy Risked Valuation/Drilling Upside
Chance of Success
- Not included as no commitment to appraise this winter.
- Theta West
- Shelf Margin Deltaic/Slope Fan System
- To reflect that the SMD and SFS horizons cross into 88E’s acreage (http://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02367223.pdf) I have assigned 25% of PANR’s SMD resource estimate and 33% of PANR’s SFS resource estimate to 88E. Again despite recent images released by 88E, I think these estimates are generous because they are downdip from PANR’s acreage and reflect that 88e have preferred to focus on Charlie 1 and Peregrine.
- Due to the expected drop in reservoir quality I have used slightly reduced NAVs to that of the SMD and SFS in PANR’s acreage.
- Not included as currently no commitment to appraise this winter.
NAV (US $/boe)
- CoS is based on ERCE’s numbers detailed in the 16th August update (http://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02406997.pdf).
- It should be noted 88E often quote the “56% chance of success” figure as stated in their recent public relations videos. However as per 88E’s full guidance “CoS represents the geological chance of success of at least one of the stacked layers which comprise each prospect. This excludes phase risk which ERCE has estimated to be 70% oil (30% gas). The Prospective Resources have also not been adjusted for the chance of development, which is estimated by 88 Energy to be 60% (including phase risk).”
- For the 88E plays I have assumed the same CoS as Pantheon despite the resources being ‘down dip’ in all plays and 88E having no 3D seismic coverage in the central Icewine leases.
- Logic for the lower NAV per barrel attached to 88E is based on the limited level of appraisal which will have been carried out post this season’s activities. Back in 2019, Dave Wall gave a presentation at the Globe to shareholders where he described a process for valuing assets (https://www.dropbox.com/s/pkn67ubzmq500pc/88e%20v6%20globe%20presentation%2029th%20nov%202019%203_1_1.wav).During this presentation he described how the value of any resource will be dependant on the amount of appraisal conducted. He indicated that after only one well (including flow testing) you can expect to achieve 50% of a fully appraised value. Although post this season’s activities 88E will have carried out two well penetrations on the N18/N19/N20, it should be noted a standard flow test is not guaranteed at Merlin-2. In the RNS dated 24/11/21, the company stated, “The production test is contingent upon the wireline program results, in particular the MDT results, as well as government approvals. The program and length of the test will be subject to operational, funding and weather window considerations.". Therefore I have used a value which is 50% of the Cenkos analyst’s NAV from Nov ‘20. (https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/88E/merlin-2-appraisal-well-location-selected-k1n6es4ukwwqaxt.html)
- In using a $1.20 NAV per barrel figure for 88E, quite coincidentally the model comes out with a similar value for Merlin-2 as Dave Wall said to expect on a successful Charlie-1 outcome. Although my 88E NAV per barrel figure is slightly lower, I believe that, despite the higher oil price environment, it is justified by the non-guarantee of a flow test at Merlin-2 and the inferior (isolated) location of Merlin when compared to Charlie. Both plays are of similar size.
Pantheon Resources Risked Valuation/Drilling Upside
Chance of Success
- This is my own resource estimate here. However PANR has commented that all zones have ‘multi-hundred million potential’ plus an additional “bonus” sand was found at Talitha #A (see slide 21 of April’s webinar).
- BFF/Theta West
- Not included as currently no commitment to appraise this winter.
- Greater Alkaid
NAV (US $/boe)
- Based on the comments made by Bob Rosenthal in August’s webinar when he stated the assets have a 60-70% CoS for commercial development. Bob’s answer to a shareholder’s question was for a total CoS given Pantheon believes the Theta West and SMD-B resource number can be classified as contingent (i.e. 100% geological CoS threshold has been attained).
- Like the resource numbers the CoS figures have not been independently verified. However, I believe these assessments to be fair. Pantheon has received significant third party support from eSeis (payment for services via 1% ORRI), AHS/Baker Hughes (VAS results), State of Alaska (award of two production units).
- Pantheon’s figures are based on comments by Jay Cheatham in the August ‘21 webinar where he assessed empirical data supporting 90% of the Armstrong/Oil Search Pikka valuation of $3.10 per barrel could be collected from the results of this winter’s operations. In my previous analysis I used the Armstrong/Oil Search Pikka deal as a valid comparator to calculate possible valuations for Pantheon. I previously considered three aspects which I will revisit below to determine if the $2.80 figure seems fair (90% of $3.10):
- At the time of the deal (Q3 ’17) Armstrong had completed 19 exploration wells (12 verticals plus 7 side tracks). Whilst Pantheon has not been operationally active to this extent, post this season’s activities the play will have completed 6 well penetrations and possibly up to 10 flow tests, including an extended production test of Alkaid. With the results of the anticipated winter programme in hand, I believe Pantheon will be very close to the evidentiary standard reached by Armstrong immediately prior to selling Pikka/Horseshoe to Oil Search.
- Given the location of Pantheon’s drill and previous NAV estimates, Pantheon’s assets will likely compare very favourably to the Pikka deal which has breakevens in the region $35-$40 per barrel (hTTps://www.oilsearch.com/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/54101/Consolidated-presentation_FInal.p). Pantheon has previously guided to an average blended breakeven of around $32 per barrel. I believe this figure will reduce given the lower drilling costs witnessed in the 20/21 season. Plus, no consideration has yet been given to shared infrastructure which will greatly benefit from the addition of the Theta West numbers in a success case.
- Potential Resource Upside
- The last thing we need to consider is the indicated upside to recoverable resources that Oil Search highlighted at the time of the deal. Recent announcements have shown their approach was indeed conservative with 2C resources now thought to be 93% higher than the base case assumption. In this comparison I believe Pantheon fares well given the potential upside from Theta West and Alkaid which are not yet fully delineated and based only on primary recovery techniques and, eg. no oil/water contact achieved at Alkaid-1.
- The global price of oil is, of course, favourable for both Pantheon and 88E but it probably needs to be considered in the context of investment funds’ ESG policies. However, given Pantheon’s proximity to infrastructure and the unique location onstate land, this ought to support an enhanced NAV per barrel being achieved.
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- Insider Buying/Selling
- Tracking “insider” buying and selling is a long accepted avenue of research. Jay Cheatham, the CEO of Pantheon, has not sold one share in all of his time associated with Pantheon. In contrast former 88E MD, Dave Wall, has sold >60% of his personal 88E holding since his departure. ELKO, the oil service provider led by 88e General Manager Erik Opstad, which worked on the Merlin-1 well and which was paid in 88E shares, has sold out of 88E entirely according to the share register. APDC, the group of oil veterans and the former 50% W.I. owner of Project Peregrine, has sold out of 88E entirely. These three parties have collected, interpreted or had sight of the data package from Merlin-1 and the wider Project Peregrine, after which they all elected to sell. Contrast this with the directors of Pantheon who maintain significant personal holdings and, indeed, have added to their shareholdings over time.
- Willow Delays
- Two routes to market for any oil produced at Umiat/Peregrine were described in the recent 88E public relations video. One option would see a pipeline constructed approximately 100 miles eastwards to hook up with TAPS. No guidance on the cost of this option was provided. The other shorter and cheaper option would see a c.20 mile pipeline constructed northwards to link up with the infrastructure installed by Conoco to develop their Willow Project. Conoco is now revising its plans for Willow as a result of adverse court proceedings. Local Alaskan journalists suggest Willow has been delayed by a minimum of two years (https://www.adn.com/business-economy/energy/2021/10/20/conocophillips-and-biden-administration-wont-appeal-court-ruling-blocking-permit-for-major-north-slope-oil-project/). Most commentators expect Willow to go ahead but this $4bn - $8bn project is now unlikely to produce its first oil until 2027/28. When faced with the cost of constructing a 100 mile pipeline or waiting until the end of the decade before commercialising producible oil at Peregrine/Umiat, 88E shareholders may question the wisdom of applying shareholder funds to Merlin-2 at this time. The risk of Peregrine joining Umiat in the “stranded asset” column has increased as a result of the court proceeding concerning Willow. A discovery larger than current Best estimates will likely be required to make a direct export to TAPS commercial and the environmental impact of such a pipeline could also be a cause for concern.
- From a position of controlling/owning 38% of the post-merger Pantheon in Q1 ‘19, the latest TR-1 from Farallon/CHONS notified the market that its holding had decreased to 14.87%. There appears to be a consensus view that Farallon’s selling throughout 2021 has frustrated the market’s true assessment of the data from Talitha #A as expressed by the market cap/SP. That may very well be the case but therein lies the opportunity because investors, throughout 2021 and up to this day, have been able to invest in Pantheon at a SP markedly below the NAV calculated using the traditional risked/unrisked valuation model. Please note that both Canaccord (house broker) and WH Ireland have a fair value for PANR of circa 170p per share at time of writing.
- 88E had initially stated it was fully funded for its Merlin-2 drill this winter season. However more recently they have indicated that any potential flow test may require further funding. Since the results from Talitha #A, Pantheon management has made it clear to the market it requires funding in order to secure its anticipated winter programme. The August webinar, the Proactive interview, the Petroleum News article dated 14/11/21 (https://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/140157443.shtml) and the RNS dated 17/11/21 all note ongoing farm out negotiations. Pantheon management has always been clear that they are, in parallel, examining alternative sources of finance and has repeatedly expressed confidence the winter programme will proceed as anticipated. The consensus amongst Pantheon shareholders is that funding will be secured but impatience is evident from a minority.
2021.12.03 16:59 Dargon567 Forgot to clean my clarinet
So, I have a buffet e11, a wooden clarinet, and forgot to swab it for a week. I played for about 45 minutes a day. Just wondering how bad it is.
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